I found an article explaining the Fermi Paradox and developed an interest that I wanted to share.
Given everything we know about the universe there must be more intelligent life but where is it?
The Fermi Paradox attempts to explain the puzzling absence of evidence that other intelligent life exists in our universe. Clicking on the aliens face will take you to a fantastic article that attempts to explain the Fermi Paradox and it's implications. I shan't attempt to do that here as I couldn't do the arguments justice.
I have and will continue to curate a collection of research and articles speaking to the science related to the questions raised by the Fermi Paradox.
This one isn't going to be put to bed until we either contact an intelligent species, discover life anywhere in our solar system, or all die trying.
If you don't find this fascinating, you're just not thinking 'big enough'...
Abstract: The Anthropic Principle, a new trend of modern cosmology, claims that the origin of life and the development of intelligent beings on the Earth is the result of highly selective biological processes, strictly tuned in the fundamental physical characteristics of the Universe. This principle could account for the failure of some programs of search for extraterrestrial intelligences (SETI) and suggests the search for strict solar analogs as a primary target for SETI strategies. In this connection, we have selected 22 solar analogs and discussed their choice.
Pub.: 01 Jul '88, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: Persistence phenomena in colonization processes could explain the negative results of SETI search preserving the possibility of a galactic civilization. However, persistence phenomena also indicates that search of technological civilizations in stars in the neighbourhood of Sun is a misdirected SETI strategy. This last conclusion is also suggested by a weaker form of the Fermi paradox. A simple model of a branching colonization which includes emergence, decay and branching of civilizations is proposed. The model could also be used in the context of ant nests diffusion.
Pub.: 08 Dec '01, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: I introduce the Fermi Paradox and some of its solutions. Then I present my own solution which includes two proposals called the Subanthropic Principle and the Undetectability Conjecture. After discussing some consequences of this solution, I make some comments about brane world scenarios and their potential to strengthen the Fermi Paradox. Finally, in the appendix I have included some questions and answers that came up during this Forum. -- En primer lugar introduzco la Paradoja de Fermi y algunas de sus soluciones. Luego presento la solucion que yo he propuesto, que incluye dos hipotesis que denomino el Principio Subantropico y la Conjetura de Indetectabilidad. Despues de discutir algunas consecuencias de esta solucion, paso a hacer algunos comentarios sobre las teorias de universos branas y su potencial para reforzar la Paradoja de Fermi. Finalmente, en el apendice incluyo algunas preguntas y respuestas que surgieron durante este Forum.
Pub.: 12 Jan '06, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: The Fermi Paradox is discussed in the light of the inflationary and brane world cosmologies. We conclude that some brane world cosmologies may be of relevance for the problem of civilizations spreading across our galaxy, strengthening the Fermi Paradox, but not the inflationary cosmologies, as has been proposed.
Pub.: 11 May '06, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: The fermi paradox uses an appeal to the mediocrity principle to make it seem counter-intuitive that humanity has not been contacted by extraterrestrial intelligence. A numerical, statistical analysis was conducted to determine whether this apparent loneliness is, in fact, unexpected. An inequality was derived to relate the frequency of life arising and developing technology on a suitable planet in the galaxy, the average length of time since the first broadcast of such a civilization, and a constant term. An analysis of the sphere reached thus far by human communication was also conducted, considering our local neighborhood and planets of particular interest. We clearly show that human communication has not reached a number of stars and planets adequate to expect an answer. These analyses both conclude that the Fermi paradox is not, in fact, unexpected. By the mediocrity principle and numerical modeling, it is actually unlikely that the Earth would have been reached by extraterrestrial communication at this point. We predict that under 1 percent of the galaxy has been reached at all thus far, and we do not anticipate to be reached until approximately half of the stars/planets have been reached. We offer a prediction that we should not expect this until at least 1,500 years in the future. Thus the Fermi paradox is not a shocking observation, and humanity may very well be contacted within our species' lifespan.
Pub.: 15 Jun '16, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: The so-called Fermi paradox claims that if technological life existed anywhere else, we would see evidence of its visits to Earth--and since we do not, such life does not exist, or some special explanation is needed. Enrico Fermi, however, never published anything on this topic. On the one occasion he is known to have mentioned it, he asked "Where is everybody?"--apparently suggesting that we do not see extraterrestrials on Earth because interstellar travel may not be feasible, but not suggesting that intelligent extraterrestrial life does not exist or suggesting its absence is paradoxical. The claim "they are not here; therefore they do not exist" was first published by Michael Hart, claiming that interstellar travel and colonization of the Galaxy would be inevitable if intelligent extraterrestrial life existed, and taking its absence here as proof that it does not exist anywhere. The Fermi paradox appears to originate in Hart's argument, not Fermi's question. Clarifying the origin of these ideas is important, because the Fermi paradox is seen by some as an authoritative objection to searching for evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence--cited in the U.S. Congress as a reason for killing NASA's SETI program on one occasion. But evidence indicates that it misrepresents Fermi's views, misappropriates his authority, deprives the actual authors of credit, and is not a valid paradox.
Pub.: 27 Feb '15, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: Many hypotheses have been raised to explain the famous Fermi paradox. One of them is that self-replicating probes could have explored the whole Galaxy, including our Solar System, and that they are still to be detected. In this scenario, it is proposed here that probes from neighboring stellar systems could use the stars they orbit as gravitational lenses to communicate efficiently with each other. Under this hypothesis, a novel SETI approach would be to monitor the solar focal regions of the most nearby stars to search for communication devices. The envisioned devices are probably not detectable by imagery or stellar occultation, but an intensive multi-spectral monitoring campaign could possibly detect some communication leakages. Another and more direct option would be to message the focal regions of nearby stars in an attempt to initiate a reaction.
Pub.: 29 Sep '13, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: I propose a unified framework for a joint analysis of the Drake equation and the Fermi paradox, which enables a simultaneous, quantitative study of both of them. The analysis is based on a simplified form of the Drake equation and on a fairly simple scheme for the colonization of the Milky Way. It appears that for sufficiently long-lived civilizations, colonization of the Galaxy is the only reasonable option to gain knowledge about other life forms. This argument allows one to define a region in the parameter space of the Drake equation where the Fermi paradox definitely holds (Strong Fermi paradox).
Pub.: 26 Feb '13, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: It has been widely acknowledged that self-replicating space-probes (SRPs) could explore the galaxy very quickly relative to the age of the galaxy. An obvious implication is that SRPs produced by extraterrestrial civilizations should have arrived in our solar system millions of years ago, and furthermore, that new probes from an ever-arising supply of civilizations ought to be arriving on a constant basis. The lack of observations of such probes underlies a frequently cited variation of the Fermi Paradox. We believe that a predilection for ETI-optimistic theories has deterred consideration of incompatible theories. Notably, SRPs have virtually disappeared from the literature. In this paper, we consider the most common arguments against SRPs and find those arguments lacking. By extension, we find recent models of galactic exploration which explicitly exclude SRPs to be unfairly handicapped and unlikely to represent natural scenarios. We also consider several other models that seek to explain the Fermi Paradox, most notably percolation theory and two societal-collapse theories. In the former case, we find that it imposes unnatural assumptions which likely render it unrealistic. In the latter case, we present a new theory of interstellar transportation bandwidth which calls into question the validity of societal-collapse theories. Finally, we offer our thoughts on how to design future SETI programs which take the conclusions of this paper into account to maximize the chance of detection.
Pub.: 25 Nov '11, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: The Fermi Paradox is the apparent contradiction between the high probability extraterrestrial civilizations' existence and the lack of contact with such civilizations. In general, solutions to Fermi's paradox come down to either estimation of Drake equation parameters i.e. our guesses about the potential number of extraterrestrial civilizations or simulation of civilizations development in the universe. We consider a new type of cellular automata, that allows to analyze Fermi paradox. We introduce bonus stimulation model (BS-model) of development in cellular space (Universe) of objects (Civilizations). When civilizations get in touch they stimulate development each other, increasing their life time. We discovered nonlinear threshold behaviour of total volume of civilizations in universe and on the basis of our model we built analogue of Drake equation.
Pub.: 16 Jul '10, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: Temporal explanations to the Fermi paradox state that the vast scale of the galaxy diminishes the chances of establishing contact with an extraterrestrial technological civilization (ETC) within a certain time window. This argument is tackled in this work in the context of exploration probes, whose propagation can be faster than that of a colonization wavefront. Extensive computational simulations have been done to build a numerical model of the dynamics of the exploration. A probabilistic analysis is subsequently conducted in order to obtain bounds on the number of ETCs that may be exploring the galaxy without establishing contact with Earth, depending on factors such as the number of probes they use, their lifetime and whether they leave some long-term imprint on explored systems or not. The results indicate that it is unlikely that more than ~10^2-10^3 ETCs are exploring the galaxy in a given Myr, if their probes have a lifetime of 50 Myr and contact evidence lasts for 1 Myr. This bound goes down to ~10 if contact evidence lasts for 100 Myr, and is also shown to be inversely proportional to the lifetime of probes. These results are interpreted in light of the Fermi paradox and are compatible with non-stationary astrobiological models in which a few ETCs have gradually appeared in the Fermi-Hart timescale.
Pub.: 02 Jul '09, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: No present observations suggest a technologically advanced extraterrestrial intelligence (ETI) has spread through the galaxy. However, under commonplace assumptions about galactic civilization formation and expansion, this absence of observation is highly unlikely. This improbability is the heart of the Fermi Paradox. The Fermi Paradox leads some to conclude that humans have the only advanced civilization in this galaxy, either because civilization formation is very rare or because intelligent civilizations inevitably destroy themselves. In this paper, we argue that this conclusion is premature by introducing the "Sustainability Solution" to the Fermi Paradox, which questions the Paradox's assumption of faster (e.g. exponential) civilization growth. Drawing on insights from the sustainability of human civilization on Earth, we propose that faster-growth may not be sustainable on the galactic scale. If this is the case, then there may exist ETI that have not expanded throughout the galaxy or have done so but collapsed. These possibilities have implications for both searches for ETI and for human civilization management.
Pub.: 02 Jun '09, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: Popular culture (movies, SF literature) and witness accounts of close encounters with extraterrestrials provide a rather bizarre image of Aliens behavior on Earth. It is far from stereotypes of human space exploration. The reported Aliens are not missions of diplomats, scientists nor even invasion fleets; typical encounters are with lone ETs (or small groups), and involve curious behavior: abductions and experiments (often of sexual nature), cattle mutilations, localized killing and mixing in human society using various methods. Standard scientific explanations of these social memes point to influence of cultural artifacts (movies, literature) on social imagination, projection of our fears and observations of human society, and, in severe cases, psychic disorder of the involved individuals. In this work we propose an alternate explanation, claiming that the memes might be the result of observations of actual behavior of true Aliens, who, visiting Earth behave in a way that is then reproduced by such memes. The proposal would solve, in natural way, the Fermi paradox.
Pub.: 12 Jul '12, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: This paper proposes a long term scheme for robotic exploration of the galaxy,and then considers the implications in terms of the `Fermi paradox' and our search for ETI. We discuss the parameter space of the `galactic ecology' of civilizations in terms of the parameters T (time between ET civilizations arising) and L, the lifetime of these civilizations. Six different regions are described.
Pub.: 20 Aug '12, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: As we learn more about the frequency and size distribution of exoplanets, we are discovering that terrestrial planets are exceedingly common. The distribution of orbital periods in turn results in many of these planets being the occupants of the Habitable Zone of their host stars. Here we show that a conclusion of prevalent life in the universe presents a serious danger due to the risk of spreading Spontaneous Necro-Animation Psychosis (SNAP), or Zombie-ism. We quantify the extent of the danger posed to Earth through the use of the Zombie Drake Equation and show how this serves as a possible explanation for the Fermi Paradox. We demonstrate how to identify the resulting necro-signatures present in the atmospheres where a zombie apocalypse may have occurred so that the risk may be quantified. We further argue that it is a matter of planetary defense and security that we carefully monitor and catalog potential SNAP-contaminated planets in order to exclude contact with these worlds in a future space-faring era.
Pub.: 29 Apr '14, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: In this paper, percolation theory is employed to place tentative bounds on the probability p of interstellar travel and the emergence of a civilization (or panspermia) that colonizes the entire Galaxy. The ensuing ramifications with regard to the Fermi paradox are also explored. In particular, it is suggested that the correlation function of inhabited exoplanets can be used to observationally constrain p in the near future. It is shown, by using a mathematical evolution model known as the Yule process, that the probability distribution for civilizations with a given number of colonized worlds is likely to exhibit a power-law tail. Some of the dynamical aspects of this issue, including the question of timescales and generalizing percolation theory, were also studied. The limitations of these models, and other avenues for future inquiry, are also outlined.Complex life-Extraterrestrial life-Panspermia-Life detection-SETI. Astrobiology 16, xxx-xxx.
Pub.: 24 May '16, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: How should the Fermi paradox affect an estimate of humankind’s likelihood and best means of long-term survival? A significant probability that many other civilizations have been in our situation but failed to become spacefaring increases the probability that our optimal existential risk strategies are costly, likely to fail, likely to leave traces if they do fail, and might require talents that mankind has but that other scientifically advanced species lack. The Fermi paradox implies that we should seek scientific data based on astronomical observations not accessible to civilizations that lived in the distant past, and that we should create machines to flood our galaxy with radio signals conditional on our civilization’s collapse. Our ability to use Bayesian updating on the Fermi paradox reduces the chance that aliens exist but are hiding from us because of their desire to not interfere in our development: giving us a false understanding of the fate of intelligent life in the universe would cloud our understanding of existential risks. The paradox also provides clues as to types of trap that might destroy us. The possibility that our universe is fine-tuned not only for life but also for the Fermi paradox magnifies these results.
Pub.: 29 Jun '16, Pinned: 08 Feb '17
Abstract: Gray (2015) argued that the Fermi paradox (FP) is a misnomer, and it is not a valid paradox. Gray also speculated that the argument was misattributed to Fermi, whose lunchtime remarks did not pertain to the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence, but to the feasibility of interstellar travel. Instead, the paradox is ascribed to Hart and Tipler, and it is further suggested that the paradox is not a real problem or research subject and should not be used in debates about SETI projects. The arguments given are unpersuasive, ahistorical, and, in at least one instance, clearly hinge on literalistic and uncharitable reading of evidence. Instead, I argue the following three points: (i) Contrary to Gray's assertion, the historical issue of naming of ideas or concepts is completely divorced from their epistemic status. (ii) FP is easily and smoothly generalized into the Great Silence paradox, so it makes no sense either theoretically or empirically to separate the two. (iii) In sharp contrast to the main implication of Gray's paper, FP has become more aggravated lately due to advances in astrobiology.
Pub.: 16 Sep '16, Pinned: 08 Feb '17