Ph.D in Biotechnology and an expert in machine learning
Would a larger sample size population help machine learning models match election results in polls?
Angry Millenials Laura Yaffe was the picture of the typical Brit, prim and proper. When small talk at a dinner turned to Brexit. Her resentment at the chief architects of the populist Leave camp movement was open and vile. UK Millenials were horrified when the Brexit results failed to match their expectations. According to Laura, ‘Anyone and everyone who can leave has left the UK for jobs in other countries‘.
While ubiquitous smartphones have enabled greater participation in online opinion polls. Bigger poll samples do not equal a true representation of the sample population. Machine learning models will fail at predicting elections when voters hide their preferences. On June 8th, UK will go to the polls. Recent opinion polls forecast Tories with a 43% majority. Will May lead the country to an election win? Or will millennials be looking for payback at the snap election?
Shy Tory Factor Polls that fail to match election results are not new. The Bradley Effect, explain how white voters deceived pollsters to avoid appearing racist. And refers to an erroneous forecast of Tom Bradley in the 1982 California Governor’s Election. “The Shy Tory factor”, tells of voters refusing to reveal their loyalties in the 1992 UK election. It skewed polls that predicted a Labour landslide win. In the recent 2016 USA Election. This effect reared its ugly head when polls at all levels forecast a Clinton landslide win. Trump won marginally.
Big Data And Polls It is obvious by now that polling has limitations and isn't gospel truth. Deviations arising from inherent randomness results in sampling bias. While biased sampling techniques leads to statistical errors. Both sampling bias and statistical errors plague polls. Compounding the error, voters faced with unpopular candidates lie about their preferences. With no intention to vote. With all these problems polls can turn to social media as a precursor of election results.
Abstract: Publication date: December 2016 Source:Geoforum, Volume 77 Author(s): Veit Bachmann, James D. Sidaway In this review we bring together a line of comments and arguments on the Brexit vote that revolve around five key terms: populism, nationalism, imperialism, fragmentation and inequality. We argue that Brexit is caught up with right-populism, racism, ultra-nationalism, socio-economic inequalities and outright misery across Europe. While these trends are across the entire continent, we will focus on the UK - as the place where, in form of the Brexit vote, populism has now left the biggest mark. We contextualize Brexit in British imperial geography and argue that factors leading to the rise of nationalism(s) and populism in the UK hinge on geopolitical decline and heightened uneven development and inequality. We view these fragmentations in British society through the lens of wider debates around territorial, relational and multi-scalar conceptions of EU space.
Pub.: 14 Oct '16, Pinned: 21 Apr '17
Abstract: Several comments immediately following the British vote for Brexit focused on the negative effects both in general terms and in individual sectors, such as that of scientific research. The most feared consequence is the isolation and loss of funding for researchers in community projects. British commentators were later joined by many other European and non-European countries who have interpreted Brexit as a manifestation of impatience with Europe, its constraint and lack of flexibility, topped by an all-English presumption, that they can do better by themselves. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Pub.: 19 Feb '17, Pinned: 21 Apr '17
Abstract: We perform an event study analysis to determine short-term abnormal stock returns following the Brexit referendum. Moreover, we examine whether firm-level internationalization helps explaining abnormal returns. We find that stocks of firms with higher proportions of domestic sales realized more negative abnormal returns than stocks of firms with more sales abroad, i.e., a higher degree of international diversification. While firm-level internationalization largely explains abnormal returns on the trading day after the referendum, it has no relevant pricing effect in the following days. The quick adjustment of stock prices to reflect firm-level internationalization indicates a high degree of market efficiency.
Pub.: 03 Jan '17, Pinned: 21 Apr '17
Abstract: During the UK referendum campaign on EU membership, the Leave camp spoke ardently about the importance of protecting our sovereignty and making our own laws. Now the UK is coming out of the EU and the single market, sovereignty is top of the agenda again, for the opposite reason. Rather than solving our right to sovereignty, Brexit threatens to destabilise it.
Pub.: 24 Feb '17, Pinned: 21 Apr '17
Abstract: The decision of the United Kingdom to leave the European Union (Brexit) after 43 years caused turmoil in exchange rate and global stock markets. More specifically, the pound relative to the dollar has lost close to 15 percent of its value in the weeks after the Brexit decision. In this paper we attempt to examine whether this sudden depreciation of the (pound-dollar) exchange rate is the reaction of market participants to the Brexit or whether the exodus of UK from the EU had little impact on the exchange rate. In doing so, we train linear and nonlinear econometric and machine learning models and evaluate out-of-sample forecasts of the exchange rate and its realized volatility in the pre- and post-Brexit period. We quantify uncertainty caused by the Brexit according to an index based on news related to economic uncertainty. We argue that in daily forecasting horizon our models adhere closely to the evolution of the exchange rate and that most of the depreciation is based on the uncertainty caused by the Brexit.
Pub.: 16 Dec '16, Pinned: 21 Apr '17
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