PhD Candidate, Australian River Institute, Griffith University
Decision makers face many challenges in the management of water resources in the islands of developing countries where water supply depends on reservoirs which are strongly driven by local precipitation and socio-economic development. The changes in precipitation coupled with high rates of population growth, urbanisation and tourism development have the potential to cause severe water scarcity in the islands. Understanding how the operational resilience of reservoirs may change in response to future climatic and non-climatic drivers is critical for a long-term strategy to safeguard a growing demand from population growth, tourism development and industrial production. In this study, a system dynamics model is employed to explore the operational resilience of the reservoirs in Van Don Island, Vietnam to projected precipitation decline, temperature and evaporation increase, and population growth, tourism development and industrial production.
The model is developed as a learning tool for decision-makers to understand the dynamics behaviour of the reservoirs’ operation in 35 years, from 2015 to 2050 under climatic and non-climatic changes to inform decision-making. Simulations targets the year 2050 because it provides a long-term perspective from which the long-term dynamic behaviour of the reservoirs’ operation and the consequences of the plausible future scenarios could be assessed to inform adaptation decision-making. Scenarios on precipitation decline, population growth and tourist increase are developed based on historical data to assess the operational resilience of the reservoirs to these subjected changes. Measures of increasing water price and water use restriction are also introduced under extreme conditions of low water volume in the reservoirs to see how they reduce the water demand from domestic use, tourism development and industrial production. The model is developed, calibrated and validated using historical data to increase the dynamics performance of the model.
Expected outcomes of this study are to help decision-makers understand how potential future changes might alter long-term water supply and which of these changes have the greatest impact on the reservoir operation, thereby affecting the growing water demand from domestic and tourist use, and industrial production in the island. These results could assist decision makers to develop strategies for water resource management adapting climate changes in the island over coming decades.