Tipping the balance of benefits and harms to favor screening mammography starting at age 40 years: a comparative modeling study of risk.

Research paper by Nicolien T NT van Ravesteyn, Diana L DL Miglioretti, Natasha K NK Stout, Sandra J SJ Lee, Clyde B CB Schechter, Diana S M DS Buist, Hui H Huang, Eveline A M EA Heijnsdijk, Amy A Trentham-Dietz, Oguzhan O Alagoz, Aimee M AM Near, Karla K Kerlikowske, Heidi D HD Nelson, Jeanne S JS Mandelblatt, Harry J HJ de Koning

Indexed on: 02 May '12Published on: 02 May '12Published in: Annals of internal medicine


Timing of initiation of screening for breast cancer is controversial in the United States.To determine the threshold relative risk (RR) at which the harm-benefit ratio of screening women aged 40 to 49 years equals that of biennial screening for women aged 50 to 74 years.Comparative modeling study.Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium, and medical literature.A contemporary cohort of women eligible for routine screening.Lifetime.Societal.Mammography screening starting at age 40 versus 50 years with different screening methods (film, digital) and screening intervals (annual, biennial).life-years gained, breast cancer deaths averted; harms: false-positive mammography findings; harm-benefit ratios: false-positive findings/life-years gained, false-positive findings/deaths averted.Screening average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years biennially yields the same false-positive findings/life-years gained as biennial screening with digital mammography starting at age 40 years for women with a 2-fold increased risk above average (median threshold RR, 1.9 [range across models, 1.5 to 4.4]). The threshold RRs are higher for annual screening with digital mammography (median, 4.3 [range, 3.3 to 10]) and when false-positive findings/deaths averted is used as an outcome measure instead of false-positive findings/life-years gained. The harm-benefit ratio for film mammography is more favorable than for digital mammography because film has a lower false-positive rate.The threshold RRs changed slightly when a more comprehensive measure of harm was used and were relatively insensitive to lower adherence assumptions.Risk was assumed to influence onset of disease without influencing screening performance.Women aged 40 to 49 years with a 2-fold increased risk have similar harm-benefit ratios for biennial screening mammography as average-risk women aged 50 to 74 years. Threshold RRs required for favorable harm-benefit ratios vary by screening method, interval, and outcome measure.National Cancer Institute.

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