Grid‐based simulation method for spatial electric load forecasting using power‐law distribution with fractal exponent

Research paper by Joel D. Melo, Edgar M. Carreno, Antonio Padilha‐Feltrin, Carlos R. Minussi

Indexed on: 14 Mar '16Published on: 07 Oct '15Published in: International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems


A grid‐based simulation method to forecast the spatial growth of load density in a distribution utility service zone is presented. The future load density is simulated considering a city's dynamic growth. A power‐law distribution with fractal exponent is used to determine how much the load density will increase/decrease depending on different factors like: natural growth following patterns, spontaneous new loads without predefined patterns, and urban poles growth that attract/repel new consumers. These factors are simulated using two modules that exchange information. The final result will display a map with future load density considering a heterogeneous distribution, which is the main contribution of this work. The method is tested on a real distribution system in a medium‐sized Brazilian city. The most important characteristic of this method is its high efficiency in spatial load density recognition with less input data than traditional spatial load forecasting methodologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.