Quantcast

Grid‐based simulation method for spatial electric load forecasting using power‐law distribution with fractal exponent

Research paper by Joel D. Melo, Edgar M. Carreno, Antonio Padilha‐Feltrin, Carlos R. Minussi

Indexed on: 14 Mar '16Published on: 07 Oct '15Published in: International Transactions on Electrical Energy Systems



Abstract

A grid‐based simulation method to forecast the spatial growth of load density in a distribution utility service zone is presented. The future load density is simulated considering a city's dynamic growth. A power‐law distribution with fractal exponent is used to determine how much the load density will increase/decrease depending on different factors like: natural growth following patterns, spontaneous new loads without predefined patterns, and urban poles growth that attract/repel new consumers. These factors are simulated using two modules that exchange information. The final result will display a map with future load density considering a heterogeneous distribution, which is the main contribution of this work. The method is tested on a real distribution system in a medium‐sized Brazilian city. The most important characteristic of this method is its high efficiency in spatial load density recognition with less input data than traditional spatial load forecasting methodologies. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.