Bayesian Forecasting of WWW Traffic on the Time Varying Poisson Model

Research paper by Daiki Koizumi, Toshiyasu Matsushima, Shigeichi Hirasawa

Indexed on: 02 Dec '09Published on: 02 Dec '09Published in: Computer Science - Networking and Internet Architecture


Traffic forecasting from past observed traffic data with small calculation complexity is one of important problems for planning of servers and networks. Focusing on World Wide Web (WWW) traffic as fundamental investigation, this paper would deal with Bayesian forecasting of network traffic on the time varying Poisson model from a viewpoint from statistical decision theory. Under this model, we would show that the estimated forecasting value is obtained by simple arithmetic calculation and expresses real WWW traffic well from both theoretical and empirical points of view.