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Bayesian Analysis in Non-linear Non-Gaussian State-Space Models using Particle Gibbs

Research paper by Oliver Grothe, Tore Selland Kleppe, Roman Liesenfeld

Indexed on: 06 Jan '16Published on: 06 Jan '16Published in: Statistics - Computation



Abstract

We consider Particle Gibbs (PG) as a tool for Bayesian analysis of non-linear non-Gaussian state-space models. PG is a Monte Carlo (MC) approximation of the standard Gibbs procedure which uses sequential MC (SMC) importance sampling inside the Gibbs procedure to update the latent and potentially high-dimensional state trajectories. We propose to combine PG with a generic and easily implementable SMC approach known as Particle Efficient Importance Sampling (PEIS). By using SMC importance sampling densities which are closely globally adapted to the targeted density of the states, PEIS can substantially improve the mixing and the efficiency of the PG draws from the posterior of the states and the parameters relative to existing PG implementations. The efficiency gains achieved by PEIS are illustrated in PG applications to a stochastic volatility model for asset returns and a Gaussian nonlinear local level model for interest rates.