Adaptive Exponential Smoothing Revisited

Research paper by Steinar Ekern

Indexed on: 01 Sep '81Published on: 01 Sep '81Published in: Journal of the Operational Research Society


Adaptive exponential smoothing models are designed to improve performance by letting the smoothing parameter vary according to the most recent forecasting accuracy. This paper argues that the constant exponential smoothing results used in two comparative studies are inadequate as benchmarks. A reexamination does not indicate that adaptive exponential smoothing methods provide superior forecasts compared to those obtainable from constant exponential smoothing with a considerate choice of the smoothing constant. No support was found for the alleged advantages of the Dennis run based adaptive procedure.